NCAA SWEET 16 PREVIEW
March 24, 2009 by David Im
It’s been anything but sweet for those of us looking for a lot of upsets. Instead, we’ve got most of the top seeds - with the exception of Arizona - advancing and a lot of torn up brackets littering the office trash can.
Still, we can console ourselves with a lot more entertaining basketball as the intensity and stakes ratchet up. Here’s a look at the upcoming games:
West Region
#1 Connecticut (-6.5) vs #5 Purdue
No team has been more dominant this tournament than UConn. They’ve won both their games by an average of 41 points and the main reason why has been AJ Price. The senior from Amityville, N.Y., has scored 47 points in the first two rounds and is shooting nine for 18 from 3-point range. He’s had plenty of help from his teammates. The Huskies have out-rebounded their opponents 93-55 in the Tournament so far and look to keep that going against the Boilermakers. It’ll be up to sophomore studs Robbie Hummel and JaJuan Johnson to keep the Huskies off the boards and establish a presence inside. Unfortunately for them, they’ve never faced a frontcourt as dominant as UConn’s, who feature a trio of bigs in Jeff Adrien, Stanley Robinson, and Hasheem Thabeet, each of whom can take over a game.
Prediction: Connecticut 81 Purdue 64
#2 Memphis (-4.5) vs #3 Missouri
This game will be a match-up of strength against strength: will Memphis’s stingy defense be able to contain Missouri’s high-octane offense? Though Memphis is the trendy pick to make it to the Final Four out of this region, don’t count out Mike Anderson’s squad. Because of his days at UAB, he knows John Calipari and his system well and coached the last Conference USA team to take down Memphis. Anderson must make sure his team does not get too caught up in the excitement of the game and be careless with the ball. They must limit their turnovers and not allow Memphis to get easy baskets. It’ll be easier said than done, however, as Calipari’s Tigers don’t have a single starter under 6′5″. Also making it tougher for Missouri is the fact that it’s been Memphis’s offense that’s been carrying them so far in the tournament. After hitting 11 3-pointers against Cal St. Northridge (10 of them by Roburt Sallie), they caught fire in their rout of Maryland, hitting 10 of 19 from long distance on their way to shooting 58.5% for the game. It doesn’t look good for Missouri but this will undoubtedly be one of the better games to watch.
Prediction: Memphis 84 Missouri 80
East Region
#1 Pittsburgh (-7) vs #4 Xavier
Pittsburgh, one of the heavy favorites to win the whole tournament, has struggled mightily in its two victories over East Tennessee State and Oklahoma State. On the other hand Xavier, regarded as one of the most overrated teams in the field, has looked impressive in their two wins. It’ll be interesting to see which trend gives on Thursday. For my money, Pittsburgh has been too good all year long for them to bow out in the Sweet 16. Much like UConn, Pitt just has too much inside and the Panthers will break out of their slump. Xavier has no one to contain DeJuan Blair and he will easily get 15+ rebounds. For the Musketeers to stand any kind of chance, they must have a big day from long distance, which they’ve shown they are capable of, hitting 14 of 33 (42.4%) in the tournament so far.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 79 Xavier 72
#2 Duke (-2) vs #3 Villanova
If Purdue and Xavier want some inspiration in their games, they can just look at Duke. Despite lacking any semblance of an inside presence, the Blue Devils have been one of the best teams in the country this year. Gerald Henderson has solidified his status as one of the elite draft prospects and the emergence of freshman Elliot Williams has given the Dukies another go-to scorer. As usual, Coach K’s kids can’t get into one of their shooting slumps and must contain Dante Cunningham inside. The 6’8″ 230-lbs. forward is averaging 21.5 points per game on 59.3% shooting along with 8.5 rebounds and 2 blocks. But it’s not a one-man show for Villanova and they showed that in their dominating victory over UCLA as six Wildcats scored in double-figures. It’ll be this balance that sends ‘Nova to the next round.
Prediction: Villanova 81 Duke 74
Midwest Region
#1 Louisville (-8.5) vs #12 Arizona
You’d never look at Arizona as a Cinderella team but that’s the case this year (and sadly, what the program has crumbled into). As the lowest remaining seed, the Wildcats will look to pull the biggest upset of the tournament this side of Cleveland State. They certainly have the personnel to do so. Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill are two of the most talented players in the country and legitimate NBA prospects, but none of them have even been Arizona’s best player. That distinction goes to Nic Wise. The speedy guard from Houston is averaging 25 points per game and is perfect from the free-throw line (17-17). This trio has made the Wildcats one of the most impressive teams despite having the easiest path to the Sweet 16 so far. That changes on Friday when they face Terrence Williams and the Louisville Cardinals. The senior forward proved how important he is to Louisville’s championship run against Siena, where he poured in 25 point, grabbed 15 rebounds and chipped in four assists. He put the team on his back and made big play after big play to send the Saints marching back to New York. But to get to the Elite Eight, Williams and the rest of the Cardinals will have to force the turnover-prone Wise into careless mistakes with their full-court press and big men Samardo Samuels and Earl Clark must keep Hill from having a big game.
Prediction: Louisville 67 Arizona 61
#2 Michigan St. (-1.5) vs #3 Kansas
In a rematch of their Jan. 10 battle in East Lansing, Mich., Michigan State and Kansas will play each other once again but this time, the stakes are much higher. In the first game, MSU rocketed out of the gates, jumping out to a 19-point halftime lead and never looked back on their way to an easy 75-62 victory. But the young Jayhawks have grown up quite a bit, going 16-3 since that loss. Sherron Collins might be the best player in the tournament so far, averaging 28.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 5 assists in Kansas’s two victories while committing only two turnovers. Cole Aldrich has been equally good and firmly placed his name in the NBA Draft discussion after posting a triple-double (13 points, 20 rebounds, 10 blocks) against an outmatched Dayton squad. But Michigan State is the deeper team and has its own inside/outside threat of Kalin Lucas and Goran Suton. The Spartans also showed they can contain an effective post player, shutting down USC’s Taj Gibson for three points and zero rebounds on 0-2 shooting (though he did have five blocks). They will look to repeat this performance against Aldrich and get one step closer to going home for the Final Four.
Prediction: Michigan State 69 Kansas 65
South Region
#1 North Carolina (-8) vs #4 Gonzaga
Ty Lawson had been dogged about his toe for the past two and a half weeks. Many questioned his toughness and wondered aloud whether he’d be there for his team when it needed him most. On Saturday evening, he made his doubters (Jeff Goodman) eat their words. After missing the opening round game against Radford, Lawson had 23 points, six assists, and no turnovers in leading North Carolina to a victory over the LSU Tigers on a big right toe that was only 70% by his own estimation. The Tar Heels will need him again when they seek revenge on a Gonzaga squad that beat them in the semifinals of the 2006 NIT Season Tip-Off at Madison Square Garden. After that matchup, questions about Tyler Hansbrough’s ability to go up against taller, more athletic players arose as the 6′11″ Josh Heytvelt thoroughly outplayed him, holding Psycho T to only nine points on two-for-five shooting. The Bulldogs now have a second 6′11″ player to throw at the All-American in sophomore Austin Daye, who began the season as a likely lottery selection. Though he’s been inconsistent all season long (and as a result, seen his stock fall), Daye still possesses the height and wingspan that gives Hansbrough (and Deon Thompson, for that matter) fits. But the Poplar Bluff, Mo., native will have plenty of help up front. The Tar Heels have a four-headed monster in big men that includes Hansbrough, Thompson, 7-footer Tyler Zeller, and freshman sensation Ed Davis. The 6’10″ Davis has emerged as a force down low, averaging 12 points (on 69.2% shooting), six rebounds, and three blocks in only 22 minutes per game this tournament. Add to that Wayne Ellington’s team-leading 24 points per game and Danny Green’s versatility and it’s easy to see why many have pegged the Heels to win the whole thing. Still, UNC’s defensive deficiencies and habit of allowing one guard to score at will (most likely Matt Bouldin) will keep the Zags in the game and give Roy Williams another scare before advancing.
Prediction: UNC 91 Gonzaga 80
#2 Oklahoma (-1) vs #3 Syracuse
This is by far the most intriguing matchup of the Sweet 16. Oklahoma features the best player in college basketball, Blake Griffin (the understatement of the year), and while becoming America’s darlings with their epic six-overtime victory over UConn, Syracuse has shown they are a legitimate Final Four contender. Both teams have short benches so fouls will play a huge role in the game. Griffin, one of the most fouled players in the country, will have his way against Arinze Onuaku, Rick Jackson, and Kristof Onganaet and it’s likely at least one of them will foul out. To combat this, Syracuse must attack Griffin, get him in early foul trouble, and send him to the bench. Fortunately for the Orange, there is no better player to do this than Jonny Flynn. It’s ironic that the second-smallest guy for Syracuse will be instrumental in containing Griffin, but Flynn, the most fearless guard in the nation, drives to the hoop every time he can and will not be afraid to draw contact with the 6′10″ 250 lb National Player of the Year. It’ll be up to him to lead the charge for Syracuse and have a massive game to keep their run going. Otherwise, Griffin will have a 30/20 game easily and set up a potential matchup with last year’s player of the year, Hansbrough.
Prediction: Syracuse 75 Oklahoma 73
you are crazy to pick syracuse over oklahoma and the man-beast known as blake griffin
UNC winning by 11? Is this an unbiased preview? You’re on the UNC bandwagon if you think they’re winning by double digits.
Syracuse over Oklahoma? Are you willing to put a wager on this to back your “oh-so-expert” prediction?
Other than those two previews, great story.