WHY THE MAVS ARE DOOMED TO FAIL
March 30, 2009 by R.C. Cola
If the Dallas Mavericks continue to build around Dirk Nowitzki as their franchise player, they won’t ever be better than a barely competent team.
Towards the end of the first half of the Cleveland Cavaliers’ 102-74 victory over the Mavericks, Anderson Varejao was getting rough with Dirk Nowitzki. Rather than power through the defensive pressure, Nowitzki tried to finesse his way out. When that didn’t work, he resorted to crying foul, leading to Mavs coach Rick Carlyle to back his star player with his own complaints, leading to a technical foul. It was a key turning point in the game, as the Cavs chipped away a 15-point lead and turned things around before running away. It was also emblematic of the soft play of the Mavs, which can be traced back to the mentality and tone set by Nowitzki.
Nowitzki is a player with a unique set of skills. For a man his size, his ability to handle the ball, shoot from beyond the arc and speed and agility is uncanny. But he is past the prime of his career, and is far from the MVP-caliber player he was when he won the award during the 2007 season. Even then, his team was upset by a younger and more hungry Golden State Warriors squad in the first round, a streak likely to continue for the foreseeable future.
Sure, issues over softness and lack of aggressiveness have dogged Nowitzki throughout his career. All of those problems are starting to show more plainly as he continues to age.
You can see it in the way he moves, and the look on his face during the game. In the first play of the game, Nowitzki settled for a mid-range jump shot instead of an easy layup. Despite some nice moments - including a four-point play in the third quarter and a handful of drives to the basket - including times when a fadeaway wasn’t necessary. When the call for toughness came, Nowitzki shirked away. While riding the bench towards the end of the blow-out, there wasn’t a sense of anger or disappointment.
The larger problem lies in the pattern set by Nowitzki. His proclivity for outside shooting is matched by other shooters including Jason Terry. Even the aging Jason Kidd has taken up more outside shooting, and is less likely to drive than in the past. Only, the Mavericks aren’t a perimeter-shooting team. The Mavs are currently third from the bottom in shooting percentage, so shooting less may help them more.
As expected, the Mavs’ shots began to rim out on Sunday, opening the door for LeBron James and crew to take the lead early in the third quarter. They took a 15-point deficit in the first half and turned it into a 20-plus-point lead to keep their 12-game home streak alive.
What does this mean for the Mavs longer term? If the playoffs began today, Dirk and the Mavs would be playing Kobe Bryant and his Los Angeles Lakers. There’s no question the Mavs’ streak of first-round losses would continue there. Nowitzki and company just don’t have enough to pull out a victory over the deeper and more talented Lakers.
As painful as it sounds, Mark Cuban should blow up the team. Send Nowitzki and his three-year, $18 million, contract to a team with cap space and willingness to take a shot at the versatile big man. The Toronto Raptors, for instance, could use another European player to complete their cosmopolitan lineup, and the Mavs could benefit from a tougher Chris Bosh. The Raptors could be losing Bosh anyway, and might be willing to entertain the idea. Or trade away your star player for draft picks and a little cap space.
In the end, it doesn’t matter what direction they take, as long as they take one. Keeping the team in its current iteration is a tacit admission that Cuban and Dallas is okay with mediocrity.
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