NCAA FINAL FOUR PREDICTIONS
April 2, 2009 by David Im
Connecticut Huskies
First Round: Def. Chattanooga 103-47
Round of 32: Def. Texas A&M 92-66
Sweet 16: Def. Purdue 72-60
Elite Eight: Def. Missouri 82-75
UConn has never lost in the Final Four. Both of their national championships saw them come out of the West Region as the No. 1 seed. The Huskies hope history will repeat itself as they once again head to the Final Four after winning the West as the top dog. The distraction of the recruiting scandals hasn’t affected them one bit as they’ve cruised to the final weekend with relative ease.
Team MVP: A.J. Price
No one has had a bumpier career than A.J. Price. The senior from Amityville, NY and former four-star recruit had to sit out his freshman year after being diagnosed with arteriovenous malformations – a condition that nearly killed him. Three months later he was arrested after stealing laptops and was let off with probation. Then fast-forward to last year’s tournament when Price tore his ACL in a first-round loss to San Diego and you have a trifecta of incidents that even John McClane would have trouble recovering from. But recover he has. The West Region’s Most Outstanding Player is averaging 20 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 5.3 assists for the tournament and he’ll have to keep his play up in order to keep Coach Jim Calhoun’s perfect Final Four record intact.
Must Show Up: Hasheem Thabeet
The Second-Team All-American dominated Chattanooga, was shut down by the Aggies, came back strong against Purdue, and then was held to no blocks for the first time all season long (and only sixth time in his career) by the feisty Tigers. The Huskies should be able to endure another weak performance from Thabeet against Michigan State but he’ll easily go for 15/15 against the shorter Spartans’ frontline.
Michigan State Spartans
First Round: Def. Robert Morris 77-62
Round of 32: Def. USC 74-69
Sweet 16: Def. Kansas 67-62
Elite Eight: Def. Louisville 64-52
The Spartans have confidence after taking down the beasts of the Big East and No. 1 overall seed Louisville Cardinals. The win, and oh yeah, home-court advantage, will have them riding high with emotion all weekend long. Will that be enough to beat the big, bad UConn Huskies? It’ll take a near-perfect game from Tom Izzo’s bunch for that to happen.
Team MVP: Goran Suton
Suton has been the Spartans’ one effective big man this postseason (though Draymond Green has pitched in a little bit). He’ll have to continue his impressive play if MSU hopes to have any chance at taking down the bigger, stronger, deeper, and more talented Huskies. The Lansing, Mich., native will spend much of his time on the perimeter to draw the 7’3” Thabeet away from the rim. If he’s hitting his shots, it might force UConn to switch into a zone, something they don’t play very often.
Must Show Up: Michigan State Bigs
The Huskies have a huge advantage inside on paper. It’ll take a total team effort to keep Jeff Adrien, Stanley Robinson, and Thabeet in check and off the boards. That means Raymar Morgan can’t have more fouls than rebounds like he’s had in the last three games and Green will have to give them another solid game off the bench. Suton (11.5 rebounds per game) also can’t get into foul trouble or it’ll be a long two-hour ride back home to East Lansing, Mich.
Villanova Wildcats
First Round: Def. American 80-67
Round of 32: Def. UCLA 89-69
Sweet 16: Def. Duke 77-54
Elite Eight: Def. Pittsburgh 78-76
The underdog of the Final Four, the Villanova Wildcats, have arguably had the toughest road to Detroit. Now they face their toughest challenge as they get ready to take on the team everyone picked to win the national championship in the preseason, the North Carolina Tar Heels. It’ll be no easy feat – the Tar Heels have won every game in the tournament by double-digits and besides a few minutes against LSU, they’ve never been challenged. Villanova will look to get revenge on UNC, who took them out in the Sweet 16 four years ago in controversial fashion. If they do, forget Cleveland State, it’ll be the shocker of the tournament.
Team MVP: The Whole Team
With all due respect to Scottie Reynolds, Cunningham has been the Wildcats’ best and most consistent player. His 18 points per game and 53% shooting have been a big reason for their success but really, it’s been a total team effort for ‘Nova. Seven different players have hit double-figures in points and it’s this balanced attack that has brought Jay Wright’s squad to the Final Four. This emphasis on team was no more evident than during halftime of the North Carolina/Oklahoma game when he and every one of his players were on camera to be interviewed.
Must Show Up: Scottie Reynolds
I’ve written about UNC’s penchant to allow one guard to absolutely explode and carry his team to victory. If there’s one player on Villanova who fits this bill, it’s Reynolds. The 6-2 junior has scored 25 points or more 15 times in his career, including two times when he’s exploded for 40. He’s a streaky shooter, however, and his career 40% shooting certainly reflects this. Reynolds can singlehandedly win or lose the game for ‘Nova so it’ll be interesting to see how he performs.
North Carolina Tar Heels
First Round: Def. Radford 101-58
Round of 32: Def. LSU 84-70
Sweet 16: Def. Gonzaga 98-77
Elite Eight: Def. Oklahoma 72-60
It’s all or nothing for Tyler Hansbrough. The All-Everything forward has won every award, broken countless records, and forever cemented his name in North Carolina lore. But to complete one of the most decorated careers in college basketball history, he has to win a national championship. It’s not the only reason Psycho T came back for his senior year, but it certainly was a big one. He’ll do everything he can to bring a title back to Chapel Hill – you can count on that.
Team MVP: Ty Lawson
Despite not playing in the first round, the speedy point guard from Clinton, MD was named the South Region’s Most Outstanding Player. In three games, he scored 61 points, dished out 20 assists, and committed only two turnovers. For those of you who skipped out on math class, that’s an absurd 10:1 assist/turnover ratio. Ironically, Lawson is attributing some of his superb play to the much talked-about toe injury that kept him out against Radford. Whatever it is, it’s gotten the Tar Heels back to the Final Four, where they’ll look to redeem themselves after their awful performance last year.
Must Show Up: Danny Green
In the game against Oklahoma, North Carolina’s do-it-all forward showed how much better he makes the team when he’s playing well. While Tyler Hansbrough and Wayne Ellington had off-nights, Green carried the scoring load, getting 18 points on six-for-nine shooting. The two most memorable plays came when he ripped an offensive rebound away from both Griffin brothers and laid it in. Tar Heel fans have seen for the past four years that he makes those kinds of plays every game. What they also know is that when Green’s shot is on, the Tar Heels are impossible to beat.
Final Four Call:
UConn 76 Michigan St. 70
UNC 85 Villanova 80
Finals Call:
UNC 78 UConn 75
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