DOES AGE MATTER IN THE NBA?
April 27, 2009 by David Im
For the past three years, many pundits have questioned the NBA’s decision to impose a 19-year-old age limit on potential draftees. Supporters of the rule don’t feel those who make the preps-to-pros jump are mature enough to handle the rigors that come with being a professional, citing Leon Smith and Ndudi Ebi as classic examples for the implementation of the limit. Many (including Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban) actually believe the age limit should be raised to 20 or 22. Critics of the rule, meanwhile, point to all the best players in the league, most of whom came straight out of high school. Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Kevin Garnett, and Dwight Howard all skipped college and developed themselves into perennial MVP candidates.
Despite the success of those superstars, there’s still a longstanding thought that the younger the player, the longer you have to wait for him to develop and grow into someone who could produce. Conversely, the older the player, the more ready he is to come in and help out right away. As NBA general managers mull over the draft pool and spend long, sleepless nights trying to decide what player they’ll invest millions of dollars in, I wanted to see how that theory holds up with a look at the production of professional players in their first three years by the class they were in when they declared for the draft. I went back to the 1999 NBA draft, broke down each pick by their class (high school, freshmen, sophomores, juniors, seniors, and foreign), and collectively looked at the stats from each class’s first-round picks through the first three years in the league. I decided to break down the analysis to before the limit was imposed (1999-2005) and after the rule was implemented (2006-2008). Today, we’ll look at the production from players who were picked before the age limit. Look for part two tomorrow, which looks at the what’s happened since the age limit came into play.
First, let’s take a look at how many players were picked and how high they were drafted during that six-year period:
YEARS 1999-2005
|
# PICKS |
# LOTTERY PICKS |
% LOTTERY PICKS |
AVG. PICK SELECTION |
PICKS PER YEAR |
|
| HIGH SCHOOL |
24 |
14 |
58% |
12.25 |
3.43 |
| FRESHMEN |
16 |
12 |
75% |
10.56 |
2.29 |
| SOPHOMORES |
30 |
19 |
63% |
12.27 |
4.29 |
| JUNIORS |
41 |
23 |
56% |
12.83 |
5.86 |
| SENIORS |
57 |
15 |
26% |
18.26 |
8.14 |
| FOREIGN |
34 |
10 |
29% |
18.21 |
4.86 |
What stands out the most from this table is how much higher freshmen were taken than everybody else. There weren’t many selected (8% of all first-round picks), but 75% of them were selected in the lottery and were on average selected almost two picks higher than players from any other class. After the NBA age-limit was put into place, a big deal was made about the impact the one-and-doners would have on the draft. But the truth is, NBA GMs have always been enamored with one-and-doners, it’s just there weren’t too many to chose from before.
Though freshmen had the highest percentage of their first-rounders as lottery picks, the juniors, providing the best balance of potential and maturity, had the most overall lottery picks at 23. The college seniors had 57 first-round picks, by far the most of any class, but only 15 of them were drafted in the lottery. Furthermore, only one of the 57, Kenyon Martin, was picked in the top five. In the 2000 NBA Draft - one of the weakest drafts in league history - the New Jersey Nets selected Martin, a senior out of Cincinnati, with the No. 1 pick. To illustrate just how weak it was, K-Mart broke his leg just three months before the draft in the Conference USA Tournament and the Nets still took him first overall. Then again, when the alternatives were Stromile Swift, Darius Miles, and Marcus Fizer, it’s easy to see why.
|
GAMES |
GAMES STARTED |
% GAMES STARTED |
MINUTES PER GAME |
|
| HIGH SCHOOL |
59.39 |
30.00 |
50.52% |
23.64 |
| FRESHMEN |
60.72 |
30.66 |
50.49% |
24.76 |
| SOPHOMORES |
61.01 |
36.03 |
59.06% |
25.49 |
| JUNIORS |
61.56 |
30.11 |
48.91% |
25.04 |
| SENIORS |
58.36 |
23.95 |
41.04% |
22.24 |
| FOREIGN |
57.01 |
23.04 |
40.42% |
20.76 |
First-round picks aren’t chosen to ride the bench. No matter what age the player is, he’s still counted on to contribute and help the team win. Most of these guys play relatively significant minutes even early on in their career and there isn’t much of a discrepancy in minutes played between the six classes (about a five minute range). But it’s still shocking to see that seniors only played more than the foreign players. They’re the ones who are supposed to be the most mature and able to step in and contribute. Instead it’s the sophomore class who led the way in minutes and games started and with guys such as Elton Brand, Chris Paul, and Andre Iguodala as representatives, it’s clear why. Many of the sophomore first-rounders weren’t only selected for their potential, but for their ability to step in and be a factor right out of the gates.
|
AVG HEIGHT |
PPG |
RPG |
APG |
SPG |
BPG |
|
| HIGH SCHOOL |
6’9.0” |
9.90 |
4.93 |
1.67 |
0.64 |
0.90 |
| FRESHMEN |
6’7.8” |
11.11 |
4.66 |
1.72 |
0.71 |
0.56 |
| SOPHOMORES |
6’7.4” |
9.95 |
4.56 |
2.41 |
0.91 |
0.56 |
| JUNIORS |
6’6.5” |
10.56 |
4.02 |
2.43 |
0.77 |
0.43 |
| SENIORS |
6’6.7” |
8.38 |
3.71 |
1.91 |
0.74 |
0.43 |
| FOREIGN |
6’9.4” |
7.96 |
3.81 |
1.57 |
0.61 |
0.60 |
So what about actual production? The stats seem to correlate directly with height. Obviously, the taller the player, the more rebounds and blocks he should have and the shorter the player, the more assists and steals. The high schoolers, at an average height of 6’9” grabbed the most rebounds and blocked the most shots while the shortest class, the juniors, dished out the most assists and were second in steals. The international players, however, have to screw everything up. Despite being the tallest class, the foreign players averaged the second-lowest amount of rebounds. (I guess the stereotype of the Euro big man is true. They all want to shoot 3’s and hang around on the perimeter). The seniors again showed that staying in school may not be beneficial to those with NBA aspirations. The four-year college players finished towards the bottom in every major statistical category.
On the other end of the spectrum, the freshmen showed an uncanny scoring prowess. Surprisingly, they averaged the most points per game (having Carmelo Anthony helps) though it came at the expense of shooting the worst percentage at 44.5% (again, having Carmelo Anthony helps). The freshmen, along with the sophomores, also had the most balance, ranking in the mid-to-upper echelon of all the categories. Who says 19 and 20-year olds can’t play in the league? Certainly not these youngins’.
After looking at all this data, I started feeling bad for the seniors. They weren’t getting a lot of playing time and as a result, their per game averages were lagging behind all the other classes. So I thought I’d even out the playing field and calculate each class’s per 40 minute averages, hoping that the seniors would show that they’re just as good as the other classes.
|
AVG HEIGHT |
PP/40 |
RP/40 |
AP/40 |
SP/40 |
BP/40 |
|
| HIGH SCHOOL |
6’9.0” |
16.76 |
8.34 |
2.83 |
1.08 |
1.52 |
| FRESHMEN |
6’7.8” |
17.95 |
7.53 |
2.77 |
1.14 |
0.91 |
| SOPHOMORES |
6’7.4” |
15.61 |
7.15 |
3.79 |
1.43 |
0.87 |
| JUNIORS |
6’6.5” |
16.87 |
6.43 |
3.88 |
1.24 |
0.69 |
| SENIORS |
6’6.7” |
15.07 |
6.68 |
3.44 |
1.34 |
0.77 |
| FOREIGN |
6’9.4” |
15.34 |
7.34 |
3.03 |
1.18 |
1.16 |
Unfortunately, that wasn’t the case. As you can see, even on a per-40 minute basis, the seniors were still the most unproductive class. But the foreign players don’t look nearly as bad as they did on the per game calculation so hey, maybe those guys just need some more burn.
Based on these seven years, it doesn’t seem like college seniors were able to help their teams much, at least in their first three seasons. Granted, many of these are not as talented as their younger peers and it’s no guarantee a team would be able to find any guy to help the team, regardless of age. But that’s not to say you can’t find any seniors who won’t turn into stars. Tayshaun Prince, Josh Howard, and Danny Granger were all seniors who not only helped their teams early in their careers, but also developed into All-Stars. Another common characteristic? All three were drafted after the lottery.
Does age matter in the NBA?…
For the past three years, many pundits have questioned the NBA’s decision to impose a 19-year-old age limit on potential draftees.
Supporters of the rule don’t feel those who make the preps-to-pros jump are mature enough to handle the rigors that come…
[...] Part 1 [...]
[...] Part 1 [...]