DOES AGE MATTER IN THE NBA? PART 2

Yesterday we looked at the first-round picks from 1999 to 2005, so today we’ll look at the period between 2006 and 2008 when the league imposed a 19-year-old eligibility limit for the draft and see how players in this era fared. Let’s get right to it.

Years 2006-2008

	# PICKS	# LOTTERY PICKS	% LOTTERY PICKS	AVG. PICK SELECTION	PICKS PER YEAR
FRESHMEN	20	14	70%	10.55	6.67
SOPHOMORES	18	7	39%	15.33	6.00
JUNIORS	18	8	44%	15.39	6.00
SENIORS	19	8	42%	18.47	6.33
FOREIGN	15	5	33%	18.67	5.00

Right off the bat, you see how much more of a balance there is in the number of players chosen from each class. College seniors don’t dominate the first-round the way they did before. As a matter of fact, about two less seniors were chosen each year while every other class’s draft rate increased. Freshmen, who were chosen the most infrequently from prior to the rule, were chosen the most from 2006 to 2008 and it’s easy to see why. If there was no age-limit rule, the amount of freshmen who declared would have dramatically decreased as many of them probably would have declared out of high school. But with the rule in place, there were more freshmen selected in the last three years (20) than there were in the previous seven (16).

As far as the lottery goes, 70% of freshmen first-rounders were selected in the lottery, only a 5% drop off, hardly a surprise again, given how NBA GMs salivate at a player’s upside. What’s astonishing was that the percentage of senior lottery picks increased from 26% to 42%, while the percentage of sophomores and juniors decreased. Apparently the quality of seniors available increased while the quantity decreased. But did it? We’ll see later on.

Generally, the players see slight increases in playing time each year for the first few years of their career. In a guy’s rookie year, he’ll play the fewest minutes in the fewest games he ever will in his career (barring injury of course). For example, Deron Williams only started 47 games his rookie year before becoming the full-time starter in his sophomore campaign. So what’s the point? Well, for comparative purposes, the data will be a bit skewed since I was only able to look at two years worth of data for the 2007 rookies and one year worth of data for the 2008 rookies. Playing time and production will be lower than what they probably would be if I was able to look at three years worth of stats for all these players.

(Yeah I know what you’re thinking – what is this guy good for? But I didn’t want to wait another seven years before looking at this data. Who knows what could happen during that time?)

	GAMES	GAMES STARTED	% GAMES STARTED	MINUTES PER GAME
FRESHMEN	64.68	29.94	46.28%	23.52
SOPHOMORES	62.60	29.80	47.60%	23.86
JUNIORS	61.87	20.26	32.75%	19.80
SENIORS	54.68	19.23	35.16%	20.15
FOREIGN	53.55	18.32	34.21%	18.25

It seems as though more and more teams are trusting their prized 19- and 20-year old draft picks to learn the job on the fly. Or underclassmen are now more ready to play in the league than at any other time. Perhaps it’s a little of both. Freshmen and sophomores played more minutes per game in more games per season than any of their older counterparts. Collectively, however, first-rounders from 2006 to 2008 played in less minutes their first three years than first-rounders from 1999 to 2005.

It’s still early, so these players can expect more time on the court. But it still may not have a huge impact on the data. This past year’s one-and-done class (Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, OJ Mayo, Kevin Love, etc.) - arguably the strongest and most productive one-and-done class ever - still only averaged 24.32 mpg in its inaugural season despite already strong stats.

	AVG HEIGHT	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG
FRESHMEN	6’7.9”	10.28	4.12	1.67	0.67	0.55
SOPHOMORES	6’8.0”	9.87	4.00	2.27	0.85	0.53
JUNIORS	6’7.3”	7.11	3.58	1.18	0.61	0.47
SENIORS	6’6.4”	8.21	2.93	1.61	0.58	0.31
FOREIGN	6’8.8”	6.81	2.86	1.39	0.54	0.39

It’s evident the per-game numbers are directly related to minutes played so let’s just go straight to the per 40 minute numbers.

	AVG HEIGHT	PP/40	RP/40	AP/40	SP/40	BP/40
FRESHMEN	6’7.9”	17.48	7.01	2.84	1.14	0.94
SOPHOMORES	6’8.0”	16.56	6.70	3.80	1.42	0.89
JUNIORS	6’7.3”	14.36	7.23	2.38	1.24	0.95
SENIORS	6’6.4”	16.29	5.81	3.20	1.15	0.62
FOREIGN	6’8.8”	14.92	6.27	3.05	1.18	0.86

The freshmen retained their crown as the highest scoring class and despite clocking in as only the third-tallest class, had impressive big-man numbers. Even more impressive, however, was the junior class. They don’t provide much in the scoring department (last in points and assists and when Jeff Green is your most prolific scorer, that’s expected) but the juniors know how to do the dirty work. They ranked first in rebounds and blocks and second in steals. Pretty good for being the second-shortest class. And again, like players drafted between 1998 and 2005, the freshmen, sophomores, and juniors provided the best balance of stats across the board.

We saw before that the percentage of senior lottery picks almost doubled. So did the early production of the senior class improve as well? Hardly. Continuing to dispel the myth that older players are more ready to contribute right away, the seniors were once again the least productive class and if it wasn’t for Brandon Roy, their numbers would have been a lot worse. To add insult to injury, four of the eight senior lottery picks during this time are certified busts. Shelden Williams, J.J. Redick, Hilton Armstrong, and Acie Law have done absolutely nothing to merit their lottery status. Three others, Randy Foye, Al Thornton, and Jason Thompson, have shown some potential but the jury is still out on them. Only Roy has played up to his draft position and that’s something David Stern, college basketball fans, and other advocates for an age-limit don’t want to see (not to mention Tyler Hansbrough, Terrence Williams, Darren Collison, and the other seniors in this draft).

So what do we make of all this? Well for one we can throw away the notion that a team might want to draft a senior so he could help the team out right away. Seniors and foreign players (who often spend a few more years abroad before coming to the US) play the least and are the least productive when they are on the court. A team would be better off taking a gamble on the younger, less proven player with higher upside because well, the numbers show he’ll play more minutes and put up better numbers.

Another, more rosy way of looking at all this is that maybe these college seniors who were selected developed themselves into first-rounders. Maybe some of these guys never would have been drafted if they had declared earlier in their college careers but improved enough in their four years that they did get drafted. And who cares if they didn’t produce much? They got their guaranteed contracts and gave themselves an opportunity to make even more money. Or take the case of Roy. He thought about entering the draft out of high school but decided instead to attend the University of Washington. He again thought about entering the draft after his junior year but decided to go back to school. Roy improved his game enough in those four years to end up as the sixth overall pick in the 2006 NBA Draft (though he should’ve been at least the third pick). He also won Rookie of the Year and is now one of the best players in the entire league. So would his professional career have followed the same trajectory if he declared early? B-Roy says himself that it wouldn’t have and that staying in school four years was the best decision of his life.

There’s no question that staying in school and getting your diploma is in the best interest of a kid. There’s no downside in graduating, especially when all these guys are going to school for free. If the whole NBA thing doesn’t work out, then they’ll always have their diplomas to fall back on. Not only that, but a 22-year old is clearly more mature and ready to handle all the off-the-court issues that come with being a professional athlete. But that’s not to say an 18-year old is not. LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard, Kevin Garnett, and a bunch of other preps-to-pros handled the sudden transition from kid to professional quite admirably. Ndudi Ebi and Leon Smith? Not so much. The point is, everyone is different. I understand David Stern’s concern for the lives of those draftees who will end up not making it in the league. We’ll just assume he does and he’s not trying to use the NCAA as a minor-league system. According to this eye-opening Sports Illustrated article, even athletes, not just in the NBA, who have successful careers are finding themselves broke and out of luck after their playing days are over. But just because some kids aren’t ready to make the jump doesn’t mean that all kids should be barred from doing so. I do feel that the current rule is only a stopgap until a better rule is instituted, most likely in 2011 when the current collective bargaining agreement expires. What that better rule is, who knows? Maybe you can think of something. If you’ve got any suggestions, send them here and I’ll post the best ones. Or just post to the message boards below.

Part 1

Part 3

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